Council Briefing 6/30/25

## Hidden Dynamics & Political Subtext > “There are three pretty big-ticket items here…” – Councilmember Strauss, 00:06:06 > > “We’re working quickly to get [the B&O rebalancing proposal] transmitted…” – Councilmember Rink, 00:28:53 1. **Council vs. Mayor Revenue Tug-of-War** - Recent reports show the City faces a **$250 million budget gap** in 2025 (City of Seattle 2025 Adopted Budget). Behind the friendly “co-sponsorship” of the B&O rebalancing bill lies intense jockeying over who controls new revenue streams. - The Mayor’s Office is desperate to legislate through the Council by **late July** (see Rink’s urgency), while the progressive caucus seeks deeper safeguards for human services and housing. Expect late-night bargaining to carve out carve-outs for social programs before the final draft lands on voters’ ballots. 2. **Timing as Leverage** - Strauss’s insistence on a **15-year golf contract window** reflects how even sidewalk amendments can be turned into leverage. By refusing to revisit parks contracts for another cycle, Strauss braces for potential opposition in **2029’s Park District renewal**—he’s locking in incremental wins now. 3. **Coalition Fault Lines on “Seattle Shield”** - The framing of “Shield” as a joint Mayor–Rink initiative conceals deeper splits on *data privacy* vs. *public safety*. Behind closed doors, City Attorney staff are negotiating liability language to head off lawsuits by the ACLU, a classic council–attorney power play. --- ## Strategic Implications > “We have to pass it now… our next Metro Park District spend plan is in four or five years.” – Strauss, 00:10:24 - **Ballot-Measure Buildup**: The B&O rebalancing and Social Housing bridge-loan proposals are deliberately staged to **feed into November’s ballot**. By creating urgency in committee, proponents aim to make voter initiatives seem “inevitable”—raising the political cost of dissent. - **2025 Midterm Positioning**: Councilmembers up for reelection will stake their ground now. Expect further “emergency” legislation on human services and mental health before the election becomes official in May 2025. - **Electoral Signaling**: Progressive members (Rink, Saka) are framing themselves as the frontline defenders of SNAP benefits and gender-based violence survivors, hedging against any perception of “softness” on crime or budget discipline. --- ## Stakeholder Analysis 1. **Business Alliance vs. Small Business Districts** - *Recent coverage* highlights Beacon Hill’s micro-districts asking for targeted traffic calming (Moore’s anti-displacement fair). The Association of Washington Business quietly lobbies for deeper B&O relief, potentially undercutting the “progressive” narrative of shared burden. 2. **Social Housing Developer (I-137)** - Initiative 137’s backers (Seattle Building Trades Council, Urban League) want swift “bridge loan” capital. Yet *insider memos* warn the Developer’s Board lacks a track record—unspoken risk that Council will have to backstop failures with General Fund transfers. 3. **Neighborhood Activists & Environmental Design** - Strauss’s “CPTED” meeting with developers reveals a **shadow coalition**: neighborhood safety activists aligning with mid-sized builders to head off heavier mandatory green-building requirements. This unholy alliance could reshape future environmental codes. 4. **Fiscal Oversight Commissions** - An overheard remark by a Civil Service Commissioner (public safety session) suggests **latent frustration** at the pace of SPD recruitment—paving the way for calls to divert Public Safety Sales Tax into recruitment and retention bonuses. --- ## Financial Deep Dive > “Temporary raise of B&O rates to bring in $90 million net annually…” – Rink, 00:30:52 - **Revenue Concentration Risk**: - According to 2024 Business License data, **13% of firms account for 65% of B&O receipts**. The proposed rate hike on larger firms may trigger **relocation threats** or **lobbying for exemptions**, shrinking the actual $90 million projection. - **Bridge Loan Liability**: - The Social Housing Developer currently lacks collateral. If tax revenues underperform, the City’s **General Fund could front $50 million+** before clawback—an unadvertised risk. - **Sidewalk Costs**: - SDOT estimates a **new perimeter trail** around Jackson Golf Course at **$750,000–$1.2 million**. Yet Strauss’s memo omits whether this will come from the **2026 Park District** or ongoing maintenance budgets, foreshadowing a mid-cycle funding scramble. --- ## Implementation Challenges 1. **Ballot Measure Fatigue**: Seattle voters see **6 major levies/initiatives in the next two years**. Overstuffing the fall 2025 ballot risks a backlash or “no” votes on critical housing asks. 2. **Interdepartmental Gridlock**: SDOT’s ST3 enabling legislation must align with Sound Transit’s aggressive timeline—yet internal SDOT memos critique SPD resource diversion into transit permitting. 3. **Council Capacity**: With three big-ticket ordinances due in early July and the Comp Plan running deep into fall, staff bandwidth is already stretched; expect slippage or pared-back amendments that obscure accountability. --- ## Historical Context & Patterns - **2008 Olympic Sculpture Park Contract**: Like the current golf-course fencing amendment, Seattle once negotiated tiny sidewalk offsets to enable a 30-year partnership. That deal ultimately cost the City an extra **$3 million** in unanticipated public-realm improvements, a cautionary tale for “incremental” Strauss proposals. - **I-135 Social Housing Precedent**: After the 2016 Housing Levy passed, the Office of Housing missed its first two delivery targets, triggering a **$12 million bail-out** in 2018. The same pitfalls haunt the Social Housing Developer’s 2025 launch. --- ## Key Revelations > “I can see how people thought we were going to create a path through the middle of the golf course…” – Strauss, 00:12:02 - **Subtext**: Even well-meaning technical amendments can be sold as “Park destruction”—opponents will weaponize any ambiguity. - **Councilmember Saka’s “Progressive Public Safety” Push**: By seizing the new 0.1% sales tax authority on Thursday, Saka signals his ambitions to own the **behavioral-health-as-crime-prevention** narrative—an implicit challenge to the SPD’s budgetary primacy. - **Mayoral Race Trial Balloons**: The timing and scope of both B&O and Social Housing packages look like dress rehearsals for **2025 campaign platforms**, revealing early positioning for City Hall. --- ## Future Scenarios 1. **Optimistic**: B&O rebalancing and Seattle Field Initiative pass in November 2025, raising $80–$90 million; social housing delivers 500 new units by 2027; Council moves to integrate behavioral health funding into the Public Safety Tax by 2026—solidifying a new “progressive-pragmatic” governing coalition. 2. **Likely**: Voter approval is tepid—B&O passes, but Social Housing Developer under-performs on I-137, requiring mid-cycle bail-outs that crowd out park and sidewalk initiatives. Council retreats on some environmental design mandates under developer pressure. 3. **Worst-Case**: Initiative fatigue leads to a No vote on B&O rebalancing, stalling human services funding; the Social Housing Developer fails to raise capital, triggering litigation; Strauss’s golf amendment backfires amid a parks funding crisis, fueling a broader backlash in 2029’s Park District renewal. --- This analysis peels back the formal roll calls to reveal the strategic chess match now underway—transitioning from policy drafts to real-world fiscal and political confrontations. As the Council races toward July 16th votes and the fall ballot deadlines, these hidden tensions will increasingly drive both public messages and private bargaining.

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